Vail

000
FXUS65 KBOU 170539
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1139 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Warm this week, with heat peaking Wednesday. Portions of the
  plains could see afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. 

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible each day 
  this week, with widespread critical fire weather conditions 
  likely for the mountains and valleys on Wednesday. 

- More active weather may return by the weekend into early next
  week.
 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This week continues to look hot, dry, and breezy. We are on track 
for highs today around 90 degrees for the plains with very few 
clouds. It will be windy in the mountains and high valleys given 
cross barrier flow of about 25 to 35 knots aloft. This will 
translate to winds gusts of 25 to 35 mph in these areas with some 
isolated higher gusts for the mountains. Portions of northern 
Larimer and Weld counties could see winds gusts of 25 to 35 mph as
well for a few hours this afternoon. The stronger wind gusts will
likely continue overnight for the mountains as model cross 
sections suggest that the cross barrier flow strengthens heading 
into Wednesday.

Tomorrow, flow in the 500 to 700 mb layer is forecast to strengthen 
further to as high as 45 to 55 knots for most of the day. Wind gusts 
for the mountains and high valleys will likely be between 35 and 
50 mph with some isolated gusts for the mountains even a bit 
higher than that. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
likely in those areas. We have issued a Red Flag Warning for 
Wednesday afternoon for the mountains and high mountain valleys. 
See the Fire Weather Discussion for more details. 

The flow aloft will likely result in downsloping winds and thus 
compressional heating for the Urban Corridor and adjacent plains. It 
is looking more likely that the cold front will move through our 
northeastern counties in the morning, keeping high temperatures in 
those areas in the mid 80s to near 90. The front could potentially 
stall in Weld, Morgan, and Lincoln counties or even wash out before 
moving through the I-25 corridor in the early evening. There is a 
low (20%) chance tomorrow afternoon that the winds do not turn to 
the northwest, a shear zone develops, and/or the cold front comes 
through earlier than currently expected. The HRRR, NAM Nest, and 
RDPS are some models showing this scenario unfolding. These 
solutions would keep winds northeast for much of the afternoon for 
the Urban Corridor and thus lower our high temperatures into the 
upper 80s and low 90s. Additionally, the trend noted yesterday where 
the deterministic models are running hotter than the ensembles has 
continued. Given all the factors noted above, we have continued to 
lean the forecast toward the ensemble means with highs for the Urban 
Corridor and adjacent plains in the mid 90s. This will place us just 
below heat advisory criteria. We still want to emphasize that those 
sensitive to heat should take precautions. 

Behind the cold front on Wednesday evening, highs on Thursday will 
be more seasonable for the plains- in the mid 80s. This relief will 
only last for one day as the upper level ridge strengthens and moves 
over southern CO and northern NM on Friday. Highs on Friday will be 
right back into the low 90s.

By Saturday, the upper level ridge starts to break down as a trough 
approaches from the west introducing some low rain chances for our 
area and potentially slightly cooler temperatures. The highest rain 
chances for our areas will be for the eastern plains, but are still 
only around 20-30%. As of now, the highest chances for severe 
weather are expected for parts of Western Kansas and Nebraska, but 
could nudge further west into our northeastern counties. Sunday 
could be another day with near normal temperatures and some low rain 
chances continuing mainly for the eastern plains. Zonal flow aloft 
is expected to begin next week keeping temperatures above average 
with a signal from model ensembles of low rain chances continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds are
currently from the west/southwest at all terminals, generally
between 9-13 kts. However, intermittent gusts up to 25 kts is
possible for the next couple of hours. 

There continues to be large uncertainty with wind direction and
speed for Wednesday. Northwest winds are expected to develop
around 13Z this morning, however a weak cold front is progged to
arrive between 15Z-16Z, which will transition winds to the
northeast. Despite most models indicating that winds will
transition back to the northwest due to mixing, this scenario
usually favors northeast winds staying through the afternoon. Due
to low confidence, have opted to stick with what most models have
and have the northwest winds return by 20Z-22Z. If we are able to
mix out, expect northwest winds gusting up to 30-35 kts this
afternoon. 

A stronger cold front will likely arrive by 02Z-04Z, with
northeast winds gusting up to 25 kts. Winds should gradually
weaken a few hours later before transitioning to southeast by
07Z-09Z. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For today, wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible for the 
mountains and high valleys. Eventually northern Larimer and Weld 
counties could see wind gusts up to 35 mph by later this 
afternoon. Relative humidity values will drop into the teens to 
low 20s. The conditions do not overlap for long enough or for a 
large enough area for a Red Flag Warning to be warranted for 
today. Nevertheless, elevated to critical fire weather conditions 
are possible today.

Strong gusts are still possible in the mountains and high valleys
tonight, but there will be some modest RH recovery. Tomorrow, 
widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely
for the mountains and high valleys. Fuels are critical, so a Red 
Flag Warning is now in effect for Wednesday afternoon. Wind gusts 
for the mountains and high valleys will likely be between 35 and 
50 mph with some isolated gusts for the mountains possibly even a 
bit higher than that. Elevated conditions are likely for the I-25 
corridor and adjacent plains. The latest updates from our fuel 
partners show that there are not critical fuel conditions for this
area. Wind gusts for the plains should be between 25 and 35 mph 
tomorrow afternoon. RH values will be in the teens areawide 
tomorrow.

Thursday through Saturday will continue to bring the possibility 
of elevated to critical fire weather conditions mainly for the 
mountains and high valleys. Winds are forecasted to be weaker, but
will be close to criteria on each afternoon. Highlights could be 
needed in a later forecast package.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ211>214-
217-218.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MV
AVIATION...MAI
FIRE WEATHER...MV