The Scoreboard

Forecast Accuracy

Which weather model actually knows these mountains? Every night we freeze each provider's snow forecast 1, 2, and 3 days out — then score it against what SNOTEL stations measured.

Dates on this page are Mountain Time.

Forecast data: National Weather Service; Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0); Data from MET Norway (CC BY 4.0) — adapted by SnowAlert.

The lifts are quiet and so are the forecasts. The machinery is warm — 622 forecasts already banked for season 2025-26 — and the first scoreboard lands with the first real storms.

Scoring: each frozen forecast's snow total vs the resort's primary SNOTEL station's measured 24-hour depth rise on that date (station-linked resorts only). "Average miss" is mean absolute error; "tendency" is the signed average. Method: docs/08.