Afton Alps

000
FXUS63 KDLH 281127
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
627 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog this morning will erode after 10AM. 

- Warmer today with low chances of thunderstorms in the
  afternoon. Similar story for Wednesday with temperatures 
  climbing into the upper 80s and low 90s. 

- Widespread precipitation chances and storms return late Thursday 
  into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Surface high pressure will be meandering around Lake Superior today 
with northeasterly winds off of the Lake pushing marine fog inland 
this morning. This fog is expected to retreat back to the Lake by 
late morning. Largely quiet conditions for the day with temperatures 
warming into the 80s. Not quite as muggy as yesterday away from the 
lake with dewpoints staying out of the 70s. Can't fully rule out 
some isolated showers and storms as a weak surface low moves through 
Ontario this afternoon. This could lead to some surface convergence 
along the return flow of the high pressure over Lake Superior. The 
most likely area to see any activity would across northern MN and 
into the Arrowhead, but chances are still fairly low 15-25%. If a 
storm does manage to develop it will have some instability to work 
with but the low shear environment should keep things from getting 
to severe criteria. There will also still be plenty of smoke aloft 
in the skies which may increase the CIN further lowering chances of 
anything developing. 

Tomorrow:

The warming trend continues with widespread upper 80s and some low 
90s across the region. And with the dewpoints approaching the upper 
60s we will see those heat indicies climb a few degrees higher. 
Broad ridging aloft will be in place helping to suppress any 
widespread precipitation chances. But some diurnally driven activity 
will be possible in the afternoon hours which could be slightly 
amplified by any ridge runners. However, most the CAMs and the 
deterministic guidance keeps PoPs at bay through the day. For now, 
we have limited the chances to less than 20%. 

Late Week:

Our next significant weather maker arrives on Thursday and Friday as 
a shortwave trough and associated cold front approach from the west. 
This system will bring our next widespread chance for showers and 
thunderstorms, and possibly some severe threat too though shear 
looks a little weak at the moment and could be the limiting factor. 
As southerly flow increases ahead of the front, humidity levels will 
creep back up, maintaining high temperatures in the upper 80s 
despite the increased cloud cover and precipitation chances.

Weekend:

Looking ahead to the upcoming weekend, the Northland will remain in 
a somewhat stagnant weather pattern. Afternoon highs will generally 
stay in the 80s. With the main storm track positioned to our north, 
we can expect occasional, less organized waves of showers and storms 
to dive across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Surface high pressure is stalled over Lake Superior through the 
forecast period with northeasterly flow off the Lake sending fog 
inland. This fog will erode after sunrise with VFR conditions 
expected through the remainder of the day. A stray shower or 
sprinkle can't be ruled out during the afternoon but coverage is 
expected to be very minimal. Another round of fog is expected 
tonight. 

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Marine dense fog advisory remains in effect through 11AM. Based on 
the latest guidance this may need to be extended through tomorrow 
morning. Surface high pressure takes up residence over Lake Superior 
leading to variable winds of 10 knots or less and wave heights 
staying less than 1 foot. 

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Warm temperatures over the next couple days with surface high 
pressure lingering over Lake Superior. Winds will be variable but 
are not expected to be overly strong. Min RHs will also bottom out 
around 40%. Low chances of rain today and tomorrow with the better 
chances for more widespread rain and storms returning late Thursday. 

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ011-012-
     019-020-037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt/Wolfe
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt
FIRE WEATHER...Britt