Afton Alps

000
FXUS63 KDLH 261138
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
638 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A more active pattern is expected this week with multiple
  chances for rain. Expect high temperatures today to be near to
  slightly below normal in the 40s.

- There is the potential for light snow showers early Tuesday morning,
  especially in north-central MN and far northern Arrowhead. 
  Accumulations are expected to be a trace to none, quickly 
  melting by late morning.

- Near normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday before warming
  back above normal for the remainder of the week and into the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Scattered light rain showers are continuing early this morning as an 
area of weak isentropic ascent occurs across the southern CWA. These 
rain showers have largely remained confined along and south of a 
line from Brainerd to Moose Lake and farther east to Mellen. To the 
north of these showers, dry air remains in place as high pressure 
continues to build over the northern Plains. CAMs continue to 
suggest that these southern CWA rain showers will continue through 
tonight, ending around sunrise.  

There were no major forecast changes made early this morning. Low 
pressure is still expected to arrive late this evening and move 
through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday as a negatively-tilted 
shortwave trough propagates north-northeast from the Four Corners 
region into the Midwest. Maintained a trace of snow accumulation in 
the forecast on Tuesday morning, as the precipitation associated 
with the warm front and deformation zone will be arriving around 
peak diurnal cooling. Confidence in a rain/snow mix to light snow 
showers on early Tuesday morning is highest in north-central MN and 
the far northern Arrowhead where low temps will likely be the 
coldest in the upper 20s. Expect any snow that falls to quickly melt 
as high temps on Tuesday increasing into the upper 40s in the 
northern half of the CWA and to around 60 in portions of northwest 
WI. 

The forecast beyond the precipitation chances tonight into 
Tuesday remains relatively unchanged with this update. Please 
see the previous discussion for more information.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Low pressure over Hudson Bay trailed a cold front into the
eastern UP of Michigan and northeastern to southwestern
Wisconsin early this afternoon. Some showers were lingering
along and behind the front across northern Wisconsin, but most
of this activity had cleared the Northland with dry conditions
expected for most for the balance of the afternoon and evening.
High pressure was building in from the Northern Plains with
drier air. A pressure gradient remained over the Minnesota
Arrowhead between the Hudson Bay low and the high moving in from
the west leading to some breezier winds from northern into
northeastern Minnesota. Heading into tonight, a stationary
boundary will set up across northern Wisconsin into central
Minnesota as a trough starts to emerge from the Rockies. This
may lead to some light shower activity across our far southern
zones tonight into tomorrow morning as moisture advects into the
Upper Midwest along this boundary and with isentropic lift.
Otherwise, most of the Northland will see a dry and fairly
normal fall day with highs running near normal in the 40s.

High pressure will shift to the northeast Monday night into
Tuesday as low pressure lifts northward across the Plains as a
mid-level trough moves into the central CONUS. As the low moves
into Minnesota early Tuesday, it will lift a warm front
northward and spread showers across the Northland. With lows
Monday night falling below freezing along and north of the Iron
Range, some light snow or pockets of all snow will be possible
as precipitation moves in. Temperatures will quickly warm after
sunrise and change any snow over to rain with little to no
accumulation expected. Showers will taper off from southwest to
northeast Tuesday afternoon before another chance for showers
arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in association with
a weak cold front. This front will then stall out across the
region on Wednesday with warm southerly flow to the south of it.
This will bring highs in the 60s across northwest Wisconsin and
from around Lake Mille Lacs to the Twin Ports area with 50s to
the north and east. Another chance for showers will be seen
along and ahead of this front for Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night as this system moves out of the region and high
pressure builds in. While rainfall amounts for Wednesday don't
look too impressive, there has been an upward trend in totals
for the Monday night into Tuesday round with 0.5-0.75" possible from
the Brainerd Lakes area into southern Pine and Burnett counties
with amounts tailing off to the north and east. 

Low chances for precipitation will then linger for late week and
into the weekend, although guidance is less optimistic on this
occurring than yesterday. Confidence in the warmer temperatures
sticking around is higher, however, with highs in the 50s and
60s expected for late week and into the weekend with no hints of
a 1991-style Halloween.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Clouds are prevalent at BRD/HYR/DLH, but VFR conditions are
expected through the morning. Stray sprinkles can't be ruled
out. Otherwise, through today, expect VFR conditions that will
gradually deteriorate this evening as a low pressure system
moves into the region. Ceilings will fall to MVFR/IFR with MVFR
visibilities as rain moves in from south to north. Winds will
become a little breezy from the east as rain begins as well.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Northerly winds early this morning will be becoming northeast today 
around 5 to 15 knots. Winds are expected to increase on Monday night 
as low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest, with wind directly 
veering from northeast to more east-southeast. Small Craft 
Advisories have been issued for most nearshore waters late Monday 
into Tuesday as winds gust 25 to 30 knots and waves build along 
portions of the North Shore up to 5 feet. As the low pressure 
continues to move farther north, winds will be becoming more south 
to southwest and easing on Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Multiple chances for precipitation are expected this upcoming week 
as a fairly active weather pattern settles over the area. Increased 
cloud cover ahead of an approaching warm front is anticipated to 
trend RH higher today compared to yesterday, with min RH this 
afternoon lowering to around 40% on the low end. Widespread rain 
showers arrive tonight and continue into Tuesday as low pressure 
moves through the area, with the potential for light snow and 
minimal accumulation in far northern MN. Anticipate breezy east to 
southeast winds gusting 15 to 25 mph on Tuesday as the low pressure 
moves through. Temperatures today will be near to slightly below 
normal, trending unseasonably warm for the remainder of the
week. 

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM CDT Wednesday 
     for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ141-
     142.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for 
     LSZ143>145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ146-
     147-150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Unruh
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Unruh
FIRE WEATHER...Unruh