Arizona Snowbowl

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 111129
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
429 AM MST Fri Sep 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase today
as a trough brushes by. Enough moisture remains in place Saturday
and Sunday for shower and thunderstorm chances in the higher
terrain. Thunderstorm chances ramp up again Monday onward as more
troughs interact with the monsoon moisture in place across the
state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture in place will finally have a
trigger mechanism acting on it as a trough brushes by. While most
of the trough remains to the north, the southern edge will be
close enough to generate some showers and thunderstorms across
Arizona. Short term models are showing showers in areas north of 
Interstate 40 in the morning through the afternoon with areas 
primarily east of Interstate 17 firing off in the afternoon.
Things look like they may remain active into the night time hours
over eastern Arizona as the trough moves through. Typical monsoon
hazards will be in place, mainly frequent lightning, gusty winds,
heavy rain and the potential for some isolated flash flooding.

On Saturday this first trough moves through the area taking its
dynamics with it. Enough moisture will remain in place Saturday
and Sunday for isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the
highest elevations with terrain influence and daytime heating
being the main triggers.  

Starting Sunday night and lasting through Wednesday a series of
troughs move through, each interacting with the monsoon moisture
still over the area. This will bring more widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances each afternoon Monday through Wednesday.

After the trough moves through Wednesday models are showing some
drying behind that trough that could potentially bring a dry spell
starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend. Will keep
monitoring to see if that indeed holds out.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 11/12Z through Saturday 12/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, MVFR possible near heavier showers or thunderstorms.
Scattered showers will develop between 12Z-18Z over areas north of
Interstate 40. Scattered thunderstorms develop after 18Z in areas
east of Interstate 17 with continued showers and thunderstorms
over areas north of Interstate 40. Showers and thunderstorms may
last until through 12Z Saturday over eastern Arizona. Winds SW-W
10-20kts with gusts to 25kts daytime, light and variable or
terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near
thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 12/12Z through Monday 14/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, brief MVFR near heavier thunderstorms. Isolated to
scattered showers possible over the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains between 18Z and 03Z each afternoon with other areas
remaining dry. Winds SW-W 10-20kts daytime, light and variable or
terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Temperatures begin to cool
down to between average and 5 degrees above average. Shower and 
thunderstorm activity will increase today with the best chances 
north of the Mogollon Rim and into the northern high deserts. 
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues Saturday but is limited
more to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Winds SW-W 10-15 
mph, with gusts 20-25 mph Friday, SW 5-15 mph, gusts to 20 mph on 
Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along 
the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Sunday with showers and thunderstorms
becoming more widespread Monday and Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatures
right around mid September averages. Winds SW 15- 20 mph, with gusts
25-30 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff