Boyne Mountain

000
FXUS63 KMQT 111101
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
701 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quick round of showers and storms moves through tonight into
  early Saturday morning.

- The potential for active weather returns early next week as a
  Colorado Low moves towards the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Early this morning, RAP analysis has the midlevel ridge axis 
shifting over the Great Lakes at this time, with the surface high 
centered over the Lower Peninsula. Meanwhile, a shortwave is moving 
into Manitoba and another into eastern Wyoming. With ridging over 
the area, nighttime microphysics is showing mostly clear skies over 
the UP, though some stray cirrus has been able to move in at times 
amid the developing SW flow ahead of the Plains trough. Temperatures 
are falling back nicely into the lower 50s so far, apart from the 
far west, where temperatures range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We 
should expect lows in the mid to upper 40s across most of the UP and 
the lower to mid 50s in the far west. 

As we head into the daytime hours, expect the midlevel ridge to 
break down, with flow aloft turning more zonal. The Wyoming 
shortwave moves eastward, with a surface low eventually closing off 
over the Plains. This looks to get "scooped" up in the broader 
midlevel troughing that will be developing over the Plains late in 
the day. Southerly return flow on the backside of the ridge will 
make for another warm summer day with highs near 80 (a bit cooler in 
the mid 70s near northern Lake Michigan). A cold front finally 
reaches the western UP late tonight, pressing into the eastern 
2/3rds by Saturday morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are 
expected along the frontal boundary, but with waning instability, no 
strong to severe storms are anticipated. HREF QPF probs for only a 
0.10" are nothing to write home about, only peaking at 50-70% in a 
stretch from Ironwood to Houghton. Eastward, light rain amounts a 
tenth of an inch or less is expected with showers dissipating past 
the central UP.


Modest pressure rises and cold air advection will make for a windy 
but dry day on Saturday. Expect an otherwise cooler day, as 
temperatures climb from lows generally in the upper 50s to highs in 
the 70s for most. Sunday, we can't rule out some scattered lake 
effect rain showers or at least clouds as 850 mb temps fall below 5C 
(0-2C if you're the Canadian or GFS) while the lake average surface 
temp sits at ~17C.

Looking into early next week, ensembles continue to hone in on a 
deepening trough over the Rockies ejecting a Colorado Low in the 
vicinity of the Great Lakes. There remains considerable disagreement 
between each ensemble and their individual ensemble members 
regarding the track and strength of the surface low pressure. Given 
a broad feature placement north and west of the UP, considerable 
moisture (PWATS near 1.75-2", the 95-99th percentile of 
climatology), if the best QPF axis winds up in our neck of the woods 
then meaningful rainfall could be expected. The NBM suggests a 60-
80% chance for QPF >1.0" by Tuesday morning, however, this may be 
high biased as individual ensembles and the LREF barely scrape 20-
40%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 701 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions continue across the area today and potentially 
through the overnight hours as a cold front passes through the area, 
with the showers and storms weakening as they continue westward with 
time tonight. While some low-level turbulence could be seen at times 
tonight due to the lack of mixing, no LLWS is expected given the 
fairly unidirectional wind profile with height from the sfc to 2 
kft. Some MVFR cigs and vis could be seen in the showers and storms 
tonight, particularly over the west where the rain rates could be 
highest. However, not confident enough on chances yet to include 
MVFR mentions in the TAFs. 

Expect the winds to be gusty from the south today and even somewhat 
into tonight. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Lake Superior: SSW winds are on the increase early this morning as a 
pair of surface low pressure systems are leading to a tightening 
pressure gradient over the Great Lakes. Gusts of 20-30 kts will be 
common lake wide by daybreak, lingering into Saturday. A few 
isolated gales to 35 kts may be seen in the open waters of the east-
central lake and where funneling occurs close to Isle Royale. 
Additionally, a showers and thunderstorms are likely in the western 
half of the lake late tonight into early Saturday along the system's 
cold front. Winds then turn westerly behind this front Saturday 
morning. Modest pressure rises and cold air advection will keep 
gusty winds around for another day, reaching to near gales in and 
around the Keweenaw (40-60% chance) in the afternoon. NW winds 
linger through Sunday, gusting 20-25 kts in the east half. More 
active marine weather returns early next week in the Monday-Tuesday 
timeframe as operation models hone in on a deepening low pressure 
system that works north of the lake. Ensemble probabilities for 
southerly and western gales associated with this system are reaching 
60-80%, however, there remains uncertainty regarding the gust 
potential of southerly gales given the warm lake temps and low level 
stability. Also, the track of this system, which is not fully agreed 
upon, will ultimately inform pressure falls/rises and cold air 
advection necessary for gusts 40-45 kts.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: SW winds are on 
the increase early this morning as a pair of surface low pressure 
systems are leading to a tightening pressure gradient over the Great 
Lakes. Gusts 20-30 kts will become common by the afternoon and 
linger through Saturday afternoon. Behind a cold front, gusts 
diminish between 10-15 kts Saturday evening, remaining out of the NW 
through Sunday. Active marine weather returns early next week with 
the passage of a potentially strong low pressure system to the 
north. This, in turn, will increase winds to near or above gales in 
the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through 
     this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW/LC
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...BW/LC