Brighton

000
FXUS65 KSLC 261121
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
521 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1012 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026...


- A couple of weak storm systems will bring generally light valley
  rain and mountain snow to northern Utah Monday night and Tuesday
  night.
 
- A more substantial storm arrives by the end of the week into the
  weekend with the potential for widespread precipitation that
  could increase the risk of flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1012 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026...
The upper low that has brought showers to the area
the last couple of days is now centered over southwest Wyoming as
it continues to exit the area. Behind this low, showers have
mostly dissipated over Utah this evening. A transient shortwave
ridge will cross the area late tonight through Monday morning
before southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the next
trough which is currently noted over the PacNW coast. Fairly 
benign weather can be expected into early Monday evening. 
Temperatures on Monday will trend warmer, rising to near to 
slightly above normal across northern Utah but remaining below 
normal across the south.

The upstream trough will end up grazing northern Utah late Monday
evening through Monday night. This will push a relatively shallow
cold front into northern Utah. A quick round of showers is
expected to accompany this front. The latest high-res models are 
not as enthusiastic about precipitation compared to the global 
models. For example, the 75th percentile of the REFS is only 
showing 0.15-0.3 inches in the Bear River Range, with generally 
less than 0.1 inches in the adjacent valleys and no measurable 
precipitation south of around Ogden. Meanwhile, the NBM 50th 
percentile has slightly higher amounts than that. Suspect the NBM 
will trend downward with the global deterministics trending 
towards a weaker cold front. With snow levels falling as low as
6500 feet near the Idaho border, some light snow accumulations 
can be expected over the higher terrain.

Cooler temperatures can be expected again on Tuesday behind the
cold front, with northern Utah trending back to slightly below 
normal temperatures. Otherwise, any precipitation from the cold 
front will clear the area by around sunrise, leading to mostly 
clear skies during the morning through late afternoon. 
Southwesterly flow aloft will quickly redevelop as a second, 
weakening trough swings into the northern Great Basin. This 
trough will then eject across northern Utah Tuesday night, 
bringing another potential round of light precipitation to 
northern Utah. Deterministic models have this second trough 
trending slightly stronger, which falls in line with the first 
trough trending slightly weaker.

Thereafter, models are still pointing to an active pattern for the
weekend into potentially early next week as a strengthening storm
system over the PacNW phases with a second system originating
farther west that taps into a plume of moisture. Latest global
deterministics are introducing greater timing uncertainties in 
that the 18z GFS does not bring any precipitation into Utah until 
Saturday evening, compared to earlier runs and the EC which have 
precipitation beginning as early as Friday. Nevertheless, Sunday 
looks to be the wettest day at this time. However, there remains 
some model spread regarding how the large-scale pattern evolves 
through the weekend and how quickly the storm exits the area. 


&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Anticipate gradual increase in upper level cloud cover into 
the day, with southerly winds increasing with gusts to around 25 kts 
in the afternoon. A grazing system will push a weak cold front 
through the terminal around 06-09Z Tuesday. This will be accompanied 
by a switch to fairly light northwest winds, an increase in VFR 
cloud cover, and a low (~10-20%) chance of showers.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to 
prevail at area terminals through the TAF period, with the exception 
of some BR/FG potential at sheltered northern terminals such as LGU 
through sunrise. Some increase of upper level cloud cover is 
expected through the day, especially at terminals further north. 
Winds will tend to favor a southerly to diurnally normal directional 
evolution. At northern terminals, grazing system will push a weak 
cold front through around 02-08Z. This will bring a period of 
increased cloud cover, potential wind shift (likely to more W or 
NW), and some isolated showers. Shower chances will be better at 
terminals nearer the UT/ID border.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Warthen

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