Mad River Mountain

000
FXUS61 KCLE 281143
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
743 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Still tracking the evolution of the convection across the CWA this 
early pre-dawn morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Post MCS environment with cold front coming through today and lake 
enhanced showers tonight.

2) High pressure for the end of the week, but becoming unsettled again 
over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Will be focusing this part of the forecast in the wake of the 
ongoing convective activity in the Great Lakes. Low pressure to 
shift to the east of the CWA today with a cold front coming through 
across Lake Erie by 18Z today. Expect some additional convective 
activity along the cold front but the possibility for severe at this 
point should be greatly diminished. Storms that form will be 
fighting dry air aloft and limited instability, but thunder should 
still be expected in a scattered nature as the cold front tracks 
through. From there, the whole stacked low pressure system to the 
east will strengthen, and create a brief period where weak trough 
axes rotating through in the cyclonic flow and cool air over the 
warm lake will produce lake enhanced showers late this evening into 
tonight. Expecting a small amount of near surface based CAPE capped 
at around 800mb with an inversion at that level. High pressure 
building from the west will shut this potential for showers down 
fairly quickly. 
 
KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure and dry weather with a cooler airmass settles into 
place for the end of the week. Conditions will begin to become 
unsettled over the weekend with a 500mb trough moving into the Great 
Lakes via the upper Mississippi Valley accompanied with an inverted 
surface trough from surface low pressure over the lower Mississippi 
Valley. Will expect convective chances to increase with gradually 
rising dewpoints once again and temperatures back into the low to 
mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Convection has largely exited the region this morning with the
exception of an area of showers and thunderstorms sinking south
across the eastern basin of Lake Erie in Northwest Pennsylvania.
This will briefly reduce cig/vis at KERI. Otherwise, expect 
widespread ceiling reductions to low-end MVFR with periods of 
IFR through late morning. Conditions will gradually improve this
afternoon with terminals largely improving to VFR by 18z/Tue. 
Expect MVFR ceilings to return across Northeast Ohio and 
Northwest PA terminals tonight as a trough lingers across Lake 
Erie and will give way to lake-induced cloud cover/rain showers.

West winds will quickly turn northerly and increase to 10-13 
knots with widespread gusts 20-25 knots through this evening.
Winds diminish to 5-10 knots tonight. 

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings and scattered showers through
Wednesday across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. 
Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms on 
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered thunderstorms will push southeast across Lake Erie
through early this morning with locally higher winds and waves 
possible. Otherwise, elevated southwesterly to westerly winds 
15-20 knots will become northerly at 15-25 knots by daybreak as
a cold front sinks south across the lake. Onshore flow will 
allow for wave heights in the central and eastern basins to 
build to 4-7 feet. Highest winds and waves will be in the 
central basin. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards 
Statements remain in effect to highlight the timeframe of 
highest risk to small craft and beach goers through Wednesday 
evening. 

Northwest winds decrease to 10-15 knots Thursday as high 
pressure approaches from the west. Light and variable flow 
returns Friday with largely offshore light winds anticipated 
into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for 
     OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through 
     Wednesday afternoon for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT 
     Wednesday for LEZ149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13