Mount Bohemia

000
FXUS63 KMQT 261144
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
744 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of cooler, near normal temperatures with highs in the
  40s to low 50s is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a
  warm-up midweek.

- More active weather returns Tuesday, with almost daily chances
  for light rain into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery reveals cloudy skies overhead 
the Upper Great Lakes underneath the exit region of a departing 
upper jet and weak embedded mid-level shortwave. These features are 
touching off light rain showers across the western UP. Nothing more 
than like rain or sprinkles are expected considering the stout 
midlevel and surface dry layer hydrometeors have to fight through to 
reach the surface. Synoptic support must be adequate enough 
considering several ASOS stations are reporting light rain in 
northern WI despite sfc Td depressions 15-20F. Regardless, expecting 
these showers to graze the UP through morning before getting shunted 
south by incoming ridging and building surface high pressure. 
Northerly winds ahead of the aforementioned building sfc high will 
keep temperatures near the climatological normal of 40s to low 50s 
for the first time in a while today. Seasonable temps will last for 
one whole day before being raised above normal again tonight as a 
shortwave lifts a weak surface low west of Lake Superior. Isentropic 
ascent ahead of this wave will force an area of light rain in the 
western UP through Tuesday while lifting temps back into the 50s. 
Another more vigorous shortwave lifts into Ontario Wednesday, 
further pushing temps back into the 60s to near 70. This drags a 
cold front through the UP Wednesday night through Thursday morning, 
kicking off better chances for showers. Deterministic models and 
their ensemble counterparts generally agree on quiet weather 
dominating through much of the weekend, potentially keeping 
Halloween night dry, but diverge towards the end of the month as a 
more zonal/SW flow aloft pattern takes shape, sending shortwave 
activity back into the region. At this time, ensembles don't suggest 
any widespread meaningful rain across the area with 24hr prob of QPF 
>0.1" only reaching 60-80% on any given day for portions of the UP. 
Additionally, above normal temperatures dominate through the rest of 
the month into early November with seemingly no end in sight as the 
CPC extended probabilities favor above normal temps through the 1-3 
week and 3-4 week outlooks. All global ensembles highlight strong 
positive 850mb temp anomalies even into their extended 200+ hour 
range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 743 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Expect VFR conditions at all terminals through this evening as mid 
and high level cloud cover streams across Upper Michigan on the 
periphery of high pressure passing to the north today. Still seeing 
a few radar echoes as of 12z Mon, but do not expect much if any 
precipitation to reach the ground or have any impact on flight 
categories given dry air in place in the lower levels of the 
atmosphere. Winds are generally light out of the north today, but 
could reach around 10 kt at KCMX and KSAW. Rain approaches the WI 
border region late in the period, resulting in lowering cigs to MVFR 
at KIWD after 06z Tue. Expect VFR to prevail at other sites through 
12z Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Lake Superior: Breezy northerlies 15-25kt gusts persist this 
morning, highest over the east-central waters, before falling back 
below 20 kts by the afternoon. A period of gustier E to S winds 
returns Tuesday-Thursday as a pair of surface lows lift west of Lake 
Superior. Ensembles have decreased the chance for gales to 35 kts 
through this period (25-50% chance), unsurprisingly considering over-
lake stability inhibiting mixing into stronger winds aloft. Winds 
fall back below 20kts Thursday-Friday. 

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Light winds 
mainly 15kts or less persist into early next week, turning northerly 
today and then southeast Tuesday. Winds begin to increase Tuesday 
night, with gusts of 20-25 kts through Wednesday, settling below 20 
kts out of the west into Thursday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BW