Paoli Peaks

000
FXUS63 KLMK 261100
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
700 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather continues through Friday, with cool nights and warm 
  afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning, mainly in 
  river valleys.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not 
  expected until Halloween weekend, with medium-high confidence (70-
  80%) in dry weather on Halloween. More active weather returns in 
  early November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

It is another seasonably cool morning across the area as the typical 
urban/rural and ridge/valley splits in temperatures are observed at 
obs sites across central KY and southern IN. Satellite imagery shows 
thin high clouds continuing to encroach from the west; however, 
these shouldn't affect cooling much if at all through sunrise. Over 
the next several hours, fog is likely to develop once again in the 
deep river valleys, as well as other sheltered rural areas. 
Temperatures around sunrise should range from the upper 30s in the 
coldest valleys to the upper 40s on the ridgelines and in city 
centers.

For most if not all of the upcoming week, a fairly stable and 
pleasant weather pattern is expected to continue across the region. 
Upper level ridging over the lower Miss. Valley and sfc high 
pressure extending from the TN Valley up into the northeast US will 
continue to bring dry weather as the storm track remains well to our 
north and west. Mid- and upper-level cloud cover will steadily 
increase over the region through Wednesday; however, dry air will 
remain in place in the lowest 20k feet of the atmosphere. Wednesday 
into Thursday, a weak upper-level shortwave is expected to slide to 
the NW of the region. However, this disturbance will have little 
moisture with it, and should bring little more than a slightly 
stronger SW breeze as it passes. Behind this wave, upper-level 
ridging will briefly build across the southeast US late week before 
additional troughs approach the region Halloween weekend.

Temperatures will remain pretty close to persistence each day this 
week, though we may add a few degrees to highs by the end of the 
week. In general, we'll be in the mid 70s for highs most of the 
week, trending toward the upper 70s by Thursday and Friday. Low 
temperatures will also remain fairly steady in the 40s for much of 
the week, with slightly milder lows mid-week thanks to increased 
cloud cover.

The continued absence of rainfall will lead to increasing 
precipitation departures, with drought conditions expected to expand 
over the next week. The prevalent dry weather would cause us to be 
susceptible to enhanced fire weather conditions if other 
meteorological variables (e.g., fuels, winds, RH) were also 
favorable. Fortunately, we've seen good nighttime recovery of RH 
values during this dry stretch, which has helped to limit curing of 
smaller fuels so far. Additionally, winds have remained light, and 
are generally expected to remain light over the next 5-7 days, with 
the minor exception as mentioned above for Wed/Thurs. So for the 
immediate future, the fire danger across the area is modest, but is 
worth monitoring as we head into November.

Friday into Saturday, a shortwave over the southern Plains is 
expected to eject to the northeast, bringing a better fetch of 
moisture into the Ohio Valley. However, this disturbance is expected 
to get sheared apart by a digging trough across the western CONUS. 
As a result, the forcing with this system will be fairly meager by 
the time it reaches our area Saturday night into Sunday, limiting 
precipitation amounts. At this time, about 80% of ensemble members 
keep things dry through the evening on Saturday, with precipitation 
chances increasing overnight into Sunday morning. Only about 30% of 
members feature rain totals over 0.25" for at least a portion of the 
area, so not expecting much from this first system. 

As we head into the first week of November, models are struggling to 
resolve what will be a fairly complex split flow pattern. Some 
solutions feature more phasing of the subtropical/polar stream 
waves, leading to a stronger system in the 11/2-4 time period. On 
the other hand, other solutions feature a continuation of the 
split/disjointed flow pattern, resulting in a succession of weaker 
systems. Forecast confidence is fairly low, aside from the general 
trend toward a more dynamic setup across the central and eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 658 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF cycle, with the 
exception of some brief morning fog possible at BWG and HNB. Latest 
surface analysis reveals widespread high pressure with current 
satellite showing some high based cirrus advecting in from the SW, 
which will result in SCT to BKN sky conditions throughout the day. 
Winds will remain light, veering from SE to WSW later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CSG
AVIATION...CG