Paoli Peaks

000
FXUS63 KLMK 110953
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
553 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue today and 
  Saturday. Any storm will be capable of brief intense rainfall 
  where localized flooding concerns could develop. Most folks can 
  expect .5" to 1" additional rainfall, however localized amounts 
  over 2-3"+ are possible.

* Overall drier and hotter conditions arrive early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Deep moisture with PWATs in the 2-2.25" range continues to pool 
along a nearly stationary WSW - ENE oriented surface boundary 
stretching from the Red River Valley up through the mid Atlantic 
states. The boundary currently bisects our CWA with clusters of 
showers and storms in the vicinity. Overall deep layer shear is 
pretty weak on the order of 15-20 knots through the 0-6 km layer. 
However there is moderate instability evident on forecast soundings. 
A near-surface stable layer should keep the storms elevated and 
limit any damaging wind threat, although did see one storm over 
western KY recently develop a hail threat. Outside of that, the main 
concern early this morning will be for locally heavy rainfall thanks 
to efficient rainfall rates in this moist and unstable atmosphere. 
The bulk of the activity should stay across southern and central KY.

We'll keep isolated to widely scattered chances for showers and 
storms in the forecast for today high moisture content combines with 
moderate instability. Tough to define any strong triggers for today 
so there will likely be extended periods of dry between bouts with a 
few showers and storms. Should be a decent temperature gradient from 
the low 80s across the northern CWA to the upper 80s across southern 
CWA.

By tonight, a shortwave is expected to slowly eject out of the mid 
Mississippi River Valley, and this could contribute to an uptick in 
convective coverage from W-E as we go through the overnight. 
Confidence is lowered a bit by the loss of daytime heating, however 
there will still be elevated instability to work with based on 
forecast soundings. There could be a continued locally heavy rain 
threat with any of these showers and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Saturday - Saturday Night...

Another slow-moving shortwave will cross the Ohio Valley region on 
Saturday. Ahead of the feature, deep moisture with ~2" PWATs will 
pool over our area, along with moderate instability spread through a 
tall/skinny CAPE profile. As a result, look for scattered to 
numerous slow moving heavy showers and storms on Saturday. The slow 
storm movement, high moisture content, and freezing levels over 15 K 
feet will create efficient rainfall rates which will result in some 
localized precipitation totals of 2"+ possible. 11/00z HREF data 
continues to suggest some PMM/LPMM data closer to the 48hr QPF max 
which suggests that higher end of the QPF envelope withing the 
ensemble is possible. Something to keep an eye on. Highs on Saturday 
look to range in the low to mid 80s.

The shortwave trough axis will push eastward Saturday night, 
shutting off the deeper moisture. Convection will diminish with a 
dry rest of the overnight expected. Lows should fall off into the mid 
and upper 60s.

Sunday - Tuesday...

Strong upper ridging from the southern CONUS will re-center eastward 
over the SE CONUS through early next week, with increasing upper 
ridging influence over the Ohio Valley as well. This will trend our 
forecast much drier along with increasing temperature back above 
normal. Highs in the mid and upper 80s on Sunday will give way to 
highs in the upper 80s and low 90s by Tuesday. Will also go with dry 
Pops during this time.

Wednesday - Thursday...

Upper ridging will stay centered over the SE CONUS through mid week, 
however this is a bit of uncertainty whether it will hold influence 
over our area, or weather it breaks down a bit allowing a surface 
front to sink southward toward our region. The trend has been 
stronger with the ridge, and overall drier/hotter conditions 
continuing through mid week. However there is some data that 
suggests the front drops close enough to us that we are able to 
spark some showers and storms over southern Indiana and perhaps 
northern KY. Will play the middle ground here and mention some 
isolated shower and storm chances across our northern CWA, but will 
also keep pretty warm temperatures in around 90 degrees. If the 
drier trend prevails, look for hotter temperature more solidly into 
the 90s.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

The month of September is off to a hot start.  Thus far we're 
running about +8.5F above normal at SDF, +8.6F at BWG, and +7.6F at 
LEX.  We're likely to keep those above average temperatures going 
due to the expected warm period of weather for much of next week.

Looking at the hemispheric scale, we're starting to see some 
interesting changes on the horizon.  Quite a few of the extended 
models and ensembles are indicating a cool down for our area as we 
enter late September, probably after the 20th or so.  The forcing 
mechanism behind that appears to be a combination of factors that 
may come together.  The Euro and its ensembles have been fairly 
intent on developing a strong area of high pressure over western 
Asia just north of the Himalayas.  If this occurs, we'll get a 
strong pressure gradient there which will result in a good amount of 
momentum transfer into the atmosphere.  Global atmospheric angular 
momentum charts really ramp up over the next 2 weeks and this should 
lead to a Asian jet enhancement and eventually a Pacific jet 
extension and enhancement.  The downstream affects here would lead 
to a stronger ridge over AK and a +PNA pattern.  Downstream, decent 
troughing looks to develop across the eastern CONUS.  Interestingly 
enough, the west Pacific looks to be favorable for continued typhoon 
activity and we'll be watching for any typhoons that recurve and 
merge into the Pacific Jet which could yield stronger impacts to the 
flow over the CONUS later this month. Considerable uncertainty 
remains as to how much the pattern will flex, but confidence is 
increasing that seasonal fall air will be possible across our area 
for late September into October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Clusters of showers and storms continue to ride along a WSW to ENE 
surface front this morning, with most of the activity expected to 
stay along and south of the Ohio River. Ceilings should steadily 
improve by late morning into midday, however a few sporadic showers 
and storms could be around this afternoon and  at times overnight. 
Used Prob30s to message these. VFR does prevail from afternoon 
onward, outside of any rogue shower or storm activity. Winds are 
tricky through this period and will be light and variable at times. 
The SE surface will be most likely to prevail early in the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS/MJ
AVIATION...BJS