Paoli Peaks

000
FXUS63 KLMK 281111
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
711 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat Advisory remains in effect for Hancock County to Warren/Allen 
  counties and west today. Temperatures in the low 90s combined with 
  very high humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index values 
  of 105 - 110. 

* Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible this 
  morning into early afternoon, mainly east of I-65. 

* Dry and slightly cooler through mid to late week. Rain and 
  thunderstorm chances increase this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Conditions are now dry in the wake of last evening's deep convection 
that moved SSE over northern and eastern portions of the forecast 
area. Current temperatures range from the upper 60s/lower 70s in the 
Bluegrass Region to the upper 70s/near 80 along and west of the I-65 
corridor. Clouds have thinned considerably after last night's 
convection as well, so temperatures appear set to soar into the 80s 
this morning. The exception may be across the northeastern CWA, 
where more persistent lower clouds may delay sfc warming in SE 
Indiana and the Bluegrass. 

In fact, scattered showers and a few storms will be possible to 
start the day across the northeastern portions of the area. Multiple 
CAMs continue to hint at scattered light to moderate showers 
developing southeast across southern IN and portions of north-
central KY and the Bluegrass. The core of a 35 kt westerly LLJ will 
overspread this area this morning ahead of an approaching cold 
front. 

Low pressure is forecast to move over Upstate NY today, with the 
trailing cold front pushing southeast through the forecast area 
later this morning through the afternoon hours. We don't really see 
a notable push of cooler air during the daytime, so temperatures are 
still likely to top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s in many 
places. A few spots in southern KY could briefly peak in the mid 
90s. Unfortunately, sfc dewpoints are forecast to linger in the mid 
70s to near 80, and the oppressive humidity will contribute to 
afternoon heat index values of 105-110 in west-central KY and south-
central KY. The Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM CDT 
this evening, with the only change being the addition of Hancock 
County KY. 

The sagging cold front may help spark isolated convection near and 
east of the I-75 corridor this afternoon, but most will stay dry. 
The sfc cold front pushes well southeast of the area by tonight as 
high pressure settles over the Great Lakes. Tonight, expect quiet 
weather with diminishing northerly winds and lows in the low to mid 
60s. We'll continue to see slightly cooler air filter into the 
region from the north into Wednesday, when highs are forecast to 
reach the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Wednesday night into Friday continues to look mainly dry with weak 
high pressure settling over the Ohio Valley. We will await the 
arrival of a slow-moving shortwave trough riding over the western 
CONUS ridge. Highs in the mid and upper 80s will be common Thursday 
and Friday, with lows in the low to mid 60s. 

Medium range guidance is fairly consistent in bringing the upper 
level trough in from the northwest by Friday night. We then see an 
amplification of the upper level flow, with the eastern CONUS trough 
closing off and meandering nearby through the weekend. Look for 
increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms over the weekend. 
Increased cloud cover and precipitation should keep daytime highs 
solidly below normal for the beginning of August.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 711 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions appear likely through this TAF period. 
There is a small chance for very brief MVFR conditions near and 
northeast of LEX this morning, but confidence is too low to include 
at this TAF. Ceilings near 4-6 kft will be more common today. A sfc 
cold front will push southeast through the area today, causing winds 
to veer NW in its wake. There is a small chance (20%) for an 
isolated shower or storm near RGA this morning and afternoon, but 
again confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ023-026-061-
     070>073.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW