Snow Creek

000
FXUS63 KEAX 261112
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through the week, before
  cooling down by the weekend.

- Chances (15-30%) for rain on Tuesday/Wednesday, with greater 
  chances (50-70%) Wednesday evening across northern MO.

- Wet pattern continues through the remainder of the week into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

If you were to look up "boring" in the dictionary, you might see a 
snapshot of our current synoptic pattern. Amplified mid-level 
ridging persists over much of the eastern third of the CONUS, which 
has been gradually battered down by impulses from the north and west 
over the past couple of days. Broad troughing over the Intermountain 
West is projected to continue this trend, further pushing the ridge 
axis off towards the east with its coincident surface high sliding 
off towards the Ohio River Valley as it traverses the upper flow. 
Even with this shift in the pattern oncoming, deep 
south/southwesterly winds will continue to contribute to daytime 
highs in the high 70s for today. 

With the adjustment of the ridge axis off towards the east, the 
placement of the forecast area under the periphery of the ridge will 
open us up to greater opportunities for precipitation in the coming 
days. By Monday evening into Tuesday morning, a shortwave will lift 
over the Central Plains along the periphery of the ridge, and bring 
with it a narrow corridor of moisture. This will work to moisten a 
relatively dry vertical profile, and bring chances (15-30%) of rain. 
Synoptic ascent doesn't look overly impressive during this 
timeframe, with the primary shortwave having lifted off further 
northeast by the time precipitation begins across the area. However, 
interrogating guidance, it looks like convergence with a quasi-
stationary boundary draped behind the lifting surface low collocated 
with a narrow corridor of vorticity/weak dCVA aloft and weak flow 
over the boundary in the low-levels will contribute to precipitation 
chances Tuesday morning. With the location of the boundary remaining 
just to the northwest of the forecast area, greatest precipitation 
chances will reside across far eastern KS/western MO during the 
early half of Tuesday. Greater cloud debris and precipitation 
potential will mitigate high temperatures for Tuesday, bringing them 
closer to average at around the low/mid 70s. Another opportunity for 
precipitation will come late Tuesday night, with a more vigorous 
shortwave lifting from the Southern Plains across central MO. 
Precipitation potential looks to be primarily driven by synoptic 
ascent from dCVA and the LLJ tapping into residual moisture in the 
low to mid-levels, keeping chances (15-30%) around through Wednesday 
morning. An enhanced pressure gradient that develops with a strong 
surface high over the northeastern CONUS and a weak cyclone 
developing off the lee of the Rockies will bring southerly winds up 
on Wednesday to ~15-20 mph. With gradual clearing of precipitation, 
temperatures will rise once again to the mid/high 70s during the day 
on Wednesday.

By Wednesday evening, yet another opportunity for precipitation 
arises with a cold frontal boundary draping down across the north-
central CONUS. Continued south/southwesterly flow will allow some 
instability to build out ahead of the front, with shear/lapse rates 
remaining just marginal enough to lower confidence on greater severe 
potential with any activity that develops. However, with this kind 
of signal at this time of year, future forecast iterations will need 
to monitor trends to see how confidence shifts with severe 
potential. Precipitation chances remain confined to the location of 
the boundary through the night, with northern MO seeing the highest 
chances (50-70%) of precipitation Wednesday evening. Guidance 
remains in pretty good agreement for precipitation chances 
continuing through the latter half of the week with continued 
disturbances in the upper-level flow, which isn't great news for 
those who prefer treats over tricks... Something to look forward to 
is temperatures cooling off by the end of the forecast period, with 
strong warm flow cut off to the south and greater east/southeasterly 
flow. However, at this point in the forecast, greater deviations in 
guidance arise with the synoptic pattern. So, as much as cooler 
temperatures sound great right about now, trends will continue to be 
monitored in the long term to see if this solution becomes more 
apparent.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR prevailing through the period. Dense high clouds scatter out
by late morning, before filling back in by 2-3Z. No flight
impacts anticipated, though, so left out mention in TAF. Winds
increasing out of the south between 5-10 kts during the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...SPG