Snowshoe Mountain

000
FXUS61 KRLX 281159
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
151 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Two rounds of showers/thunderstorms today with severe
thunderstorms and flash flooding possible. The first round
affects the entire area this morning, then round two focused 
south of the Ohio River this afternoon/evening.

2) After a relatively quiet stretch of weather mid to late week,
more unsettled weather arrives for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Hi-Res models are supported by upstream radar imagery with the 
idea of a complex of showers/thunderstorms congealing to our 
northwest over MI and OH and riding an advancing warm front 
southeast into and across our CWA late tonight into Tuesday 
morning. The presence of the warm front and increasing 
southwesterly flow should continue to pull in moisture in the 
low levels with a source region where surface dewpoints are 
currently around 80. Wind shear also increases overnight. So 
while timing suggest convection should be predominantly 
elevated, we cannot rule out some isolated higher wind gusts 
perhaps reaching the surface.

Probably a bit more concerning given recent events is the threat
for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. PWATs are shown
to rise over 2 inches up the Ohio River later this morning and
HREF points to a potential for training of convection and an
elevated risk of excessive rainfall in a narrow corridor 
dropping down over the heart of our CWA towards dawn. This looks
like a localized threat and I am not confident enough on the
placement of the area of heavy rain for a flood watch at this 
time, but will definitely continue to monitor the potential as 
the upstream convection takes shape through the predawn hours.

After a lull in activity later in the morning, we should have 
several hours to destabilize in advance of the front, which will
pass southeast of the Ohio River during the early afternoon. We
anticipate scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms to 
develop in advance of the front and slide southeast with a 
potential for the strongest storms to carry a risk of damaging 
winds and perhaps some hail, especially if the sun comes out for
several hours. 

Showers and thunderstorms diminish quickly across our southeast
counties during the evening, but we remain close enough to a low
pressure system over NY and PA for a few showers or storms to 
fire in our northeast mountains Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure builds over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys from 
Wednesday through Friday bringing pleasant weather. Models then 
show a trough aloft digging in to our west over the weekend and 
perhaps cutting off from the mean flow into early next week. 
This results in moisture advection and increasing chances for 
showers/storms Saturday into Sunday, and lingering 
showers/storms through at least Monday and probably into 
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

A line of heavy showers and TSTMs is rolling through the area at 12Z 
it will exit out of the area by 14Z leaving some showers and MVFR 
cigs in its wake.

A much weaker band of showers and possible TSTMs (30 percent chc) 
will follow the main band and will affect most of the airfields 
between 18Z and 22Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 20 to 40 percent chc that the shower 
activity will continue after 22Z to about 01Z. There is lower 
confidence after 06Z due to timing of the onset of LIFR cig/vis. 
Cigs could also be 200 ft higher than fcst and vis could be 1SM.

 &&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ABE
AVIATION...ASR@LOX