Taos Ski Valley

000
FXUS65 KABQ 281124 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations 
  of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in
  the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues
  at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding
  will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy
  rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Convection across northeast NM has sent an outflow boundary
southward across northeast NM early this morning. This boundary
will continue to press southward and nudge up to the Central
Mountain Chain through the morning. Winds behind the boundary 
will veer to the east and southeast later this morning, allowing 
for moist upslope flow onto the Central Mountain Chain this 
afternoon. Models are very much in agreement that storms will 
develop across all of the high terrain this afternoon, but in
particular that widespread heavy rainfall will impact much of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. CAMs also depict that these storms 
will shift eastward across far northeast NM and will continue to 
produce heavy rainfall. NBM90th percentile QPF amounts are over 
2.5 inches across far NE NM and REFS LPMM amounts are not far 
behind. Thus, the Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover the
northern Sangres, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas and Union County. 
The remainder of the Flash Flood Watch has not been altered. CAMs 
are also very much in agreement that areas around Gallup, Zuni 
Pueblo and surrounding areas will likely see another round of 
heavy rainfall today, and perhaps multiple rounds of rainfall. 
Over an inch of rainfall is not out of the question in these 
already hard hit areas. While storms shift east and southeast off 
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and other portions of the Central 
Mountain Chain, storms across western NM will shift toward the 
north or northwest as the upper high center will be almost 
squarely over Santa Fe by early aftn. In addition to the heavy 
rainfall, gusty and erratic winds and small hail will remain 
possible with storm today. 

Temperatures will also remain hot today. Heat Advisories are in
effect for many lower elevation areas and no changes to the NPW
are expected. Temps between 100-104 are expected with the Rio
Grande Valley and around Farmington and Shiprock, while temps up
to 107 are expected again across east central NM. Several
temperature records are in jeopardy again, including Clovis, Fort
Sumner, Moriarty, Portales, Roswell, Santa Fe and Tucumcari.

The upper high will continue to meander over NM on Wednesday, but
will not change in strength much from today -- still around 596dam
at H5. Models suggest storms will develop over high terrain areas
once again, though generally show coverage to be less than today. 
The exception to that rule is across far northeast NM. A weak 
disturbance rounding the top of the ridge in CO should set off 
showers and thunderstorms over both the NM and CO Sangre de Cristo
Mtns which will shift eastward near the NM/CO border. These storms
could once again produce heavy rainfall in excess of 1-1.5". While
NE NM seems to be favored for heavy rainfall on Wednesday, cannot
rule out a few storms producing very heavy rainfall elsewhere as
PWATs will continue to hover at or just above 1 inch and storm
motions will remain slow.

Temperatures on Wednesday may stay just below Heat Advisory
criteria but it will still be hot. Temperatures between 100 and 
104 remain likely for much of east central NM while temperatures 
between 98 and 101 are favored across the middle and lower Rio 
Grande Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 150 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The upper high will strengthen on Thursday to 598 dam as it begins
to shift westward, though for much of the day will remain over
central NM. Though storm coverage should be similar to or slightly
less than Wednesday, storms will still be able to produce heavy
rainfall as PWATs remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the vort max
produced by last nights convection over Mexico looks to merge with
a weak shortwave shifting over northern CA later today and move 
over the top of the ridge Thursday morning and across eastern CO 
Thursday afternoon. The convection that ensues over CO, NE and KS 
will send another outflow boundary into NE NM late Thursday night 
into Friday. This should set the stage for additional shower and 
thunderstorm activity across eastern NM on Friday afternoon and 
evening. Meanwhile on Friday, the upper high will have shifted 
west- northwest to the AZ/UT border and strengthened to at least 
600dam at H5. Temperatures should rise another degree or two with 
triple digit heat returning around FMN. Saturday looks to remain 
active with regards to precip, at least along the Central 
Mountain Chain and Southwest Mountains, but drier air may start to
move into NW NM around the upper high. The drier air may continue
to push more into NM early next week reducing storm coverage 
Sunday and Monday. PWATs may finally dip below 1 inch. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

An outflow boundary has pushed southward across eastern NM and a
few showers and thundestorms have developed this morning along it
stretching from just south of KCQC to KTCC. Additionally, a few
storms persist across west central NM. All of these storms are 
not expected to last much past sunrise. However, another round of
showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with storms
focusing across the high terrain initially. Storms should roll 
off the Sangre de Cristo Mountain to the southeast while storms 
across western NM should shift slowly to the north or northwest. 
Storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall, IFR or lower vsbys,
and gusty winds in excess of 40kt. Showers and thunderstorms 
should continue past 06Z Wed before slowly diminishing. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
week, however, temperatures will be hot areawide. Daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are on tap. With the upper high 
overhead today, storms will shift east and southeast off the 
Central Mtn Chain, but will shift north and northwest across 
western NM. Slow storm motions will persist through Thursday. 
Typical monsoon hazards including locally heavy rainfall, flash
flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty and erratic winds can be 
expected daily. New fires may start due to lightning in pockets of
dry fuels. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 100  69  98  67 /   5  20  10  20 
Dulce...........................  97  57  94  55 /  20  40  30  30 
Cuba............................  95  62  91  61 /  20  50  20  40 
Gallup..........................  92  60  92  60 /  40  40  30  20 
El Morro........................  88  59  88  59 /  60  50  50  20 
Grants..........................  93  62  92  61 /  30  50  40  30 
Quemado.........................  89  60  89  60 /  60  40  50  20 
Magdalena.......................  92  67  91  66 /  30  30  40  30 
Datil...........................  88  61  88  61 /  50  40  40  30 
Reserve.........................  95  60  94  61 /  60  20  40  20 
Glenwood........................ 100  63  98  65 /  60  30  30  20 
Chama...........................  89  55  86  54 /  30  50  40  40 
Los Alamos......................  92  66  89  65 /  50  50  50  60 
Pecos...........................  92  60  89  60 /  60  50  40  40 
Cerro/Questa....................  89  58  86  58 /  50  40  50  50 
Red River.......................  80  51  77  50 /  60  50  60  50 
Angel Fire......................  84  49  82  48 /  60  30  60  40 
Taos............................  92  60  90  59 /  50  30  30  40 
Mora............................  89  58  86  57 /  70  50  60  50 
Espanola........................ 100  67  95  65 /  40  40  30  40 
Santa Fe........................  93  65  90  64 /  50  40  30  40 
Santa Fe Airport................  97  64  93  63 /  30  40  20  40 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  99  70  96  70 /  30  50  30  40 
Albuquerque Heights............. 100  70  98  70 /  20  50  10  30 
Albuquerque Valley.............. 103  70 100  69 /  20  50  10  30 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100  71  98  71 /  20  40  10  30 
Belen........................... 103  70 100  69 /  20  50   5  20 
Bernalillo...................... 102  70  99  69 /  20  40  20  40 
Bosque Farms.................... 102  68  99  67 /  20  60  10  20 
Corrales........................ 102  70  99  70 /  20  40  20  30 
Los Lunas....................... 102  69  99  68 /  20  50  10  20 
Placitas........................  97  69  95  68 /  30  40  30  40 
Rio Rancho...................... 101  70  98  70 /  20  40  20  30 
Socorro......................... 104  74 101  73 /  20  40   5  10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  94  64  90  64 /  40  50  40  40 
Tijeras.........................  95  64  92  64 /  40  60  30  40 
Edgewood........................  97  62  93  61 /  50  60  40  40 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  97  59  94  58 /  50  60  30  30 
Clines Corners..................  92  61  90  61 /  40  50  20  30 
Mountainair.....................  96  62  93  62 /  40  50  20  30 
Gran Quivira....................  95  63  93  63 /  30  40  10  20 
Carrizozo.......................  98  69  96  68 /  20  20  10   5 
Ruidoso.........................  91  65  88  63 /  20  10  10   5 
Capulin.........................  89  58  88  59 /  70  70  70  30 
Raton...........................  94  58  91  58 /  80  40  50  30 
Springer........................  96  60  94  59 /  70  40  40  30 
Las Vegas.......................  92  60  89  59 /  50  50  40  40 
Clayton.........................  98  66  96  67 /  20  50  30  30 
Roy.............................  95  63  92  64 /  40  50  20  30 
Conchas......................... 103  68 101  68 /  20  40  10  20 
Santa Rosa......................  99  67  98  66 /  10  40   0  20 
Tucumcari....................... 105  70 102  71 /   5  30  10  20 
Clovis.......................... 104  70 101  69 /   5  10   5   5 
Portales........................ 104  71 101  71 /   5   5   0   0 
Fort Sumner..................... 105  71 101  70 /   5  10   0  10 
Roswell......................... 107  74 103  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Picacho......................... 101  69  97  67 /   5   5   0   0 
Elk.............................  99  66  93  64 /   5   5   5   5 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening 
for NMZ204>209-211>215-218-221-227>230-241.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening 
for NMZ201-217-219-220-234>238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34