Taos Ski Valley

000
FXUS65 KABQ 111147 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
547 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 532 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Heat continues across eastern and central New Mexico through 
  the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related 
  illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

- Isolated to scattered storms may threaten frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall through Sunday. A surge of
  rich monsoon moisture next week may increase the risk of heavy
  rainfall and flash flooding Monday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A moist outflow boundary moving west over eastern NM has kept low 
level easterly flow in place with surface dewpoints in the 50s and 
60s. Exceptionally dry air remains in place over central and western 
NM with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s. This dry air will 
spread southeast into more of the region today with a 593dm H5 
high drifting southeast into southern NM. Max temps will be very 
hot again with many record highs expected, including the ABQ metro.
Stronger zonal flow aloft (40-60kt) will approach from the Great 
Basin by late this afternoon and force strong moisture advection 
into western NM. PWATs are forecast to rise from near 0.25" to 
near 1" this evening along the NM/AZ border. CAMs show scattered 
showers and storms forming along the higher terrain in eastern AZ 
then moving swiftly east into western NM. Replacing the dry air 
will come at the cost of strong downburst winds along and west of 
the Cont Divide this evening. DCAPE values are progged between 
600 and 1200 J/kg with the large inverted-V profiles. A large 
convective outflow may surge east into the RGV between 8PM and 
10PM with gusts of 35 to 45mph. Blowing dust may reduce vsbys if
the boundary materializes. 

Saturday will be very hot again as the H5 ridge drifts east into 
southeast NM. More record highs are expected. Whatever moisture 
was able to advect east into NM will battle drier mid and upper 
level air lingering on the northern edge of the upper high. CAMs 
show meager convection with high DCAPE still leading to gusty 
downburst winds. The upper high will move east into west TX 
Saturday night and allow 700-500mb layer follow to become more 
south/southwest over the region for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

PWATs continue climbing Sunday and Monday with increasing coverage 
of showers and storms expected, especially for central and western 
NM. Forecast confidence on the coverage of storms with beneficial 
rainfall is still low to moderate. The GFS and ECMWF both show a 
weak ridge extending westward into southern NM from the main upper 
high farther east over TX. This pattern may choke off the deeper 
moisture and lead to greater stability over parts of the area. An 
upper level trough approaching from the west may provide larger-
scale ascent to overcome any stability issues by Monday.

The rest of next week looks downright wet with surprisingly good 
consensus from extended models. The upper high shifts into the 
southeast U.S. while an upper level low/trough develops along the 
West Coast. PWATs are also shown soaring to near record values for 
mid September. Widespread rainfall amounts between 0.50" and 1.50" 
are shown during the 4-day period from Monday to Thursday on the 
latest NBM with 90th percentile amounts >3". Given the lackluster
performance of monsoon bursts this summer, forecast confidence 
will remain low to moderate until we get much closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A small patch of low clouds near the Raton Ridge and patchy fog
near Angel Fire will dissipate thru sunrise. Northwest breezes 
will kick up over central NM and the high terrain between 12PM 
and 2PM with gusts of 15 to 25KT possible thru sunset. Isolated 
to scattered SHRA/TS over eastern AZ will move quickly east into 
western NM after 1PM with the peak coverage likely from 4PM to 
10PM. Wind gusts >40KT are possible with any of this activity 
along with patchy BLDU, brief rain, and frequent lightning in 
western NM. An outflow boundary from this activity may reach the 
RGV by 8PM. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Today will be very dry over much of northern and central NM with 
northwest breezes (gusts 15-25 mph), hot temps, and min humidity 
<15%. Severe to exceptional drought along with ERCs forecast to 
increase to near the 80th percentile may allow recent lightning 
strikes in dry fuels to perk up as new fire starts. Moisture will 
return quickly tonight with high-based and gusty showers and storms 
moving east into western NM. More lightning starts are possible 
in dry fuels. More of the same is expected on Saturday. Temps 
today and Saturday will rival many record highs.

A wetter pattern will attempt to redevelop Sunday thru Thursday 
with low to moderate confidence on the areal coverage of wetting 
rainfall. Confidence is greater that max temps will trend cooler 
with higher humidity areawide next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  59  90  62 /   0  20   0   5 
Dulce...........................  90  46  89  50 /   0   5   5   0 
Cuba............................  88  55  87  57 /   0  10   5  10 
Gallup..........................  90  54  85  55 /  30  30   5  10 
El Morro........................  85  52  82  52 /  20  20   5  20 
Grants..........................  89  57  87  56 /  20  20  10  20 
Quemado.........................  85  56  83  56 /  20  20  10  30 
Magdalena.......................  88  62  86  61 /   0  10  30  20 
Datil...........................  84  57  82  56 /  10  10  30  30 
Reserve.........................  90  56  90  55 /  40  30  50  20 
Glenwood........................  95  60  96  61 /  30  30  10  10 
Chama...........................  84  49  83  51 /   0   0  10   5 
Los Alamos......................  88  61  86  62 /   0   0  20  10 
Pecos...........................  89  59  89  58 /   0   0  10  10 
Cerro/Questa....................  86  54  85  56 /   0   0   5   5 
Red River.......................  81  42  81  43 /   0   0  10   5 
Angel Fire......................  82  36  82  41 /   0   0  10   5 
Taos............................  90  52  89  53 /   0   0   5   5 
Mora............................  86  56  86  54 /   0   0  20   5 
Espanola........................  94  59  94  61 /   0   0  10   5 
Santa Fe........................  89  63  89  63 /   0   0   5  10 
Santa Fe Airport................  92  59  91  61 /   0   0   5  10 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  68  94  68 /   0   5   5  10 
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  66  95  67 /   0   5   0  10 
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  65  96  66 /   0   5   0  10 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  67  95  69 /   0   5   0  10 
Belen...........................  97  64  95  64 /   0   5   0  10 
Bernalillo......................  97  65  97  67 /   0   5   0  10 
Bosque Farms....................  96  63  95  64 /   0   5   0  10 
Corrales........................  97  66  97  67 /   0   5   0  10 
Los Lunas.......................  96  64  95  65 /   0   5   0  10 
Placitas........................  93  65  92  66 /   0   5   5  10 
Rio Rancho......................  96  66  96  67 /   0   5   0  10 
Socorro.........................  98  70  97  69 /   0   5  10  10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  61  87  61 /   0   0  10  10 
Tijeras.........................  92  62  91  62 /   0   0  10  10 
Edgewood........................  93  59  91  59 /   0   0  10  10 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  56  93  56 /   0   0   5  10 
Clines Corners..................  89  60  88  59 /   0   0   5  10 
Mountainair.....................  91  59  90  59 /   0   0   5  10 
Gran Quivira....................  90  60  90  60 /   0   0   0  10 
Carrizozo.......................  92  66  93  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Ruidoso.........................  85  60  87  59 /   0   0  50   0 
Capulin.........................  87  56  85  55 /   0   0   5   5 
Raton...........................  91  53  90  53 /   0   0   5   5 
Springer........................  93  54  93  55 /   0   0   5   5 
Las Vegas.......................  89  58  88  56 /   0   0  10  10 
Clayton.........................  93  62  92  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Roy.............................  91  59  92  59 /   0   0   0   5 
Conchas.........................  99  64  99  66 /   0   0   0  10 
Santa Rosa......................  98  65  96  65 /   0   0   5  10 
Tucumcari....................... 100  65  99  68 /   0   0   0   5 
Clovis..........................  99  67 102  69 /   0   0   0   5 
Portales........................ 100  68 102  70 /   0   0   0   5 
Fort Sumner..................... 101  65 101  68 /   0   0   0   5 
Roswell......................... 103  69 103  71 /   0   0   0   5 
Picacho.........................  96  65  97  64 /   5   0  20   5 
Elk.............................  93  62  95  61 /   5   0  30   5 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42