Eldora

000
FXUS65 KBOU 130001
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
601 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions today and 
  possible on Saturday across the high country.

- Cooler for Saturday and Sunday behind a cold front.

- The best chances for showers/thunderstorms will be Sunday. 

- Temperatures warm back up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Westerly flow aloft will prevail over Colorado today as an upper 
level trough moves across the Northern Rockies. This will bring 
warm and dry conditions to the area today. Cross sections show a 
dry airmass with only few high-based cumulus clouds this 
afternoon. Gusty west winds, with gusts up to 40 mph, will prevail
over the mountains and mountain valleys. Highs this afternoon are
expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across northeast 
Colorado.  

A cold front associated with the upper level trough 
passing to our north will push south through the area Saturday 
morning. High temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler with 
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A slight increasein low 
level moisture is expected, though dew points will only reach the 
30s Saturday afternoon. A second surge of cooler air will increase
northeast winds late Saturday afternoon and evening leading to 
increased upslope flow. This is about the only source of lift, 
thus the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be over 
the foothills and Palmer Divide. Limited instability and moisture 
combined with a somewhat capped airmass will make it difficult for
showers and thunderstorms to survive moving off the higher 
terrain. Cooler air and low level moisture continue to move in 
behind this second surge resulting in mostly cloudy skies and cool
temperatures come Sunday morning. Temperatures will struggle to 
get out of the 60s Sunday afternoon due to the cooler air and 
cloud cover. Expect a better chance for showers and thunderstorms 
over the foothills (mainly south of I-70) and Palmer Divide. The 
urban corridor again looks to be too cool and capped. A shortwave 
moving across Wyoming Sunday could help produce showers off the 
higher terrain, thus we will keep a chance for showers in the 
forecast. One thing to note, the last few model runs have 
significantly reduced rainfall chances for this weekendacross 
northeast Colorado.

For Monday, northwest flow aloft will prevail over the Central
Rockies as upper level ridge intensifies along the west coast.
Temperatures rebound with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
across northeast Colorado. Drier air returns, but there could be
enough lingering moisture for isolated showers and thunderstorms
along and east of the Palmer Divide. Colorado will remain just on
the east edge of the ridge Tuesday through Thursday under
northwest flow aloft. Temperatures continue to warm Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s by
Wednesday. A shortwave trough passing north of Colorado will bring
a cold front to northeast Colorado sometime Wednesday. If the
front arrives late in the day, downslope flow ahead of the cold
front could push highs well into the 90s. If the cold front
arrives early in the day, highs may only reach the upper 80s. The
cold front should bring cooler temperatures for Thursday, any
relief from the heat will be short-lived as ridging moves over
Colorado. Chances for rainfall next week (Monday through Friday)
look very low, as ridging pushes the storm track north of Colorado
and subtropical moisture stays well south. 

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Winds are currently still light and variable with some hints of NE 
winds already over KDEN. Weak SW drainage flow is expected late 
tonight and into the early morning hours before the arrival of 
northerly winds from a cold front. The timing of the cold front 
appears to be on track, between 12Z and 14Z. Winds will generally 
remain northerly through mid-afternoon before a shift to gusty (18KT-
25KT gusts) NE winds by around 22Z.

There is no precipitation in the TAFs at this time. However, the 
chance for a light shower increases (20% chance) beyond 00Z Saturday 
evening into Sunday morning. Ceilings will also begin to lower late 
Saturday night through Sunday morning, but VFR conditions are 
expected through the end of this TAF period. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...AA