Jay Peak

000
FXUS61 KBTV 261118
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
718 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 216 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 216 AM EDT Monday...

1. A cold front will bring a roller coaster of temperatures to 
the region through Thursday.

2. Some light rain will be possible late Thursday as a frontal 
boundary moves through the region, with mostly dry and seasonably 
warm weather prevail late this week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 216 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will bring light rain showers to portions 
of northern New York and the higher terrain of Vermont this morning 
and early this afternoon. Model soundings continue to show a 
plethora of dry air in the low levels which will likely inhibit 
much, if not all, rainfall from making it into the deeper valleys. 
Still, any location that does receive rain today will see well under 
a tenth of an inch and will only be for a brief period of time. High 
pressure will quickly build across the region Tuesday with strong 
cold air advection leading to noticeably cooler temperatures on 
Tuesday. For example, we will see temperatures warm into the mid 50s 
to mid 60s today but see temperatures struggle to warm into the mid 
to upper 40s on Tuesday. Several locations in Vermont have the 
potential to see record lows Wednesday morning as temperatures fall 
into the mid teens to lower 20s. This cool down will be short-lived 
as warm advection will begin on Wednesday and will allow for 
temperatures to moderate back into the lower 60s by Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: With the exception of a few chances for showers Thursday 
night, mostly dry and seasonably warm weather is expected for 
late this week into the weekend. Another weak cold front looks 
to move through the region late Thursday, with the potential for
some light rain showers, particularly across northern portions 
of the forecast area. Heading into the weekend, drier weather 
looks to prevail, especially for Saturday. Temperatures later 
this week into the weekend look to be seasonably warm, with 
daytime high temperatures climbing into the mid 50s and lower 
60s and overnight lows falling into the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions continue to prevail across the
region, and will continue throughout most of the forecast period. A
weak system will move through the region later this morning,
bringing increasing cloud and a possible stray shower or two to
northern New York. Ceilings will generally remain VFR, but could
trend MVFR towards 15Z to 18Z or so as the front moves through the
region. The best chances for MVFR ceilings and any showers will be
at KMSS, but confidence is low given the dry conditions so PROB30
groups were utilized. After 18Z or so, all terminals will trend back
to VFR and are expected to remain that way for the remainder of the
forecast period. Winds tonight will general be light and terrain
influences, increasing out of the south/southwest towards morning.
Behind the front, winds look to shift to become more northwesterly.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until
further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to
disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are
aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Clay
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV