Schweitzer

000
FXUS66 KOTX 281126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
426 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tuesday will see elevated to locally critical fire weather
  conditions for Central WA.

- Near normal temperatures in the 80s through Wednesday. Above
  normal temperatures return Thursday through Saturday with 
  highs in the 90s.

- Critical Fire Weather expected for portions of the Inland
  Northwest Saturday, August 1st due to windy and dry conditions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds across Central Washington on Tuesday will bring
elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions.
Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals in the 80s
through Wednesday before warming back into the 90s toward the
end of the week. Saturday will be the day to watch for critical
fire weather concerns due to strong winds and low humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday: Upper-level troughing off the PNW/British Columbia coast 
will move inland, and the associated shortwave will usher in a dry 
cold front across the Inland Northwest. The resultant dry and gusty 
conditions will lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather 
concerns to central and eastern Washington. Areas with the most risk 
include the Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley, which have a 20-
50% chance of maximum wind gusts 40 mph or greater this afternoon. 
Elsewhere, expect wind gusts 20 to 25 mph with sustained winds 10 to 
15 mph. With minimum relative humidity values mostly staying above 
20 percent, fire weather headlines have not been issued for this 
afternoon, but any new or ongoing fires may still experience rapid 
spread due to the combination of dry conditions and gusty winds. 
There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of very light showers at the 
Cascade crest, but elsewhere chances are at or very near zero. 

Wednesday through Friday: Once the cold front moves through, the 
region will again be in between offshore troughing and a ridge over 
the central US. Little change in temperatures will be seen, with 
highs remaining in the mid to high 80s and lows in the mid 50s. By 
Thursday, the ridge will begin strengthening and retrograding back 
west, centering over the Desert Southwest to end the work week. This 
will result in an uptick in temperatures with Friday being the 
warmest day of the week and expected highs in the low 90s. This will 
bring a return of mostly isolated Moderate HeatRisk values, and all 
those sensitive to heat-related illnesses should take precautions to 
remain adequately cool and hydrated. While winds on Wednesday will 
be seasonably breezy, the thermal gradient increasing on Thursday 
and Friday will bring wind gusts 15-20 mph to the basin, Cascade 
gaps, Waterville Plateau, and Okanogan Valley areas. These two days 
will be elevated fire weather days due to the drier air mass ushered 
in by the cold front dropping relative humidity values into the 
teens.

Next weekend: Long-term guidance and cluster analysis continue to 
strongly support the next potential critical fire weather day being 
Saturday. An upper level trough will usher another cold front 
through the area, alongside a strong surface level low on the 
lee side of the Rockies creating a strong pressure gradient with
the off shore surface high. This will result in a strong push 
of winds alongside continued dry conditions. Looking at NBM 
probabilities, a majority of the forecast area, there is a 60 
percent chance and above at 30 mph maximum wind gusts. When 
looking at the chance for 40 mph wind gusts, the chances shrink 
down to the Waterville Plateau, Okanogan Valley, and upper 
Columbia Basin areas, which have a 40 to 50 percent chance and 
and above. Within the Waterville Plateau area, there is even a 
30% chance and above for wind gusts 50 mph or higher. These 
probabilities support the potential for a critical fire weather 
day, and conditions will be very closely monitored as any new 
ignitions or ongoing fires could experience rapid spread. 
Throughout the week into next weekend, chances for precipitation
remain at or near zero percent, bringing very little relief at 
this point of the fire season. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mainly VFR through the 12Z TAF cycle. Any flight 
restrictions will be due to lowered visibilities resulting from 
surface level wildfire smoke and haze. Latest obs at the eastern
TAF sites (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KLWS/KPUW) indicate prevailing
visibilities in the 7SM to 9SM range. KSFF may be more prone to
smoke impacts early this morning due to the Little Baldy fire 
on the eastern side of Spokane. Hi-resoultion guidance indicates
these visibility impacts should be otherwise minimal through
tonight. Otherwise, west to southwest winds will become breezy
today with most airfields seeing gusts of 20-25kts. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low to moderate
confidence in minor impacts to visibilities in wildfire smoke.
Moderate to high confidence in timing and magnitudes of wind
speeds and wind shifts today. /PMP

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        88  56  86  54  90  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Coeur d'Alene  87  57  86  57  90  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Pullman        84  51  83  51  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Lewiston       93  61  91  62  95  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Colville       87  50  87  49  90  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Sandpoint      86  54  84  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Kellogg        84  54  83  55  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Moses Lake     89  55  87  55  91  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Wenatchee      86  59  88  62  91  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Omak           91  55  89  57  93  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for Central Chelan 
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue 
     Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan 
     Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee 
     Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Wednesday for Central 
     Panhandle Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez 
     Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$