Snowbasin

000
FXUS65 KSLC 281139
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
539 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1034 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026...


- Drier air spreading into southwest Utah will limit convection
  across southern Utah on Tuesday, with isolated to scattered
  convection developing again across northern Utah. Moisture will
  increase again on Wednesday, bringing an increased threat of 
  flash flooding across central and southern Utah, before 
  decreasing substantially from Thursday onward.
  
- Significant heat temporarily and marginally subsides on Tuesday
  and Wednesday before increasing in intensity once again by
  Thursday onward. High temperatures will only moderate to the 
  upper-90s on the Wasatch Front and mid-100s in the lowest 
  elevations of southern Utah before increasing by upwards of 5-7 
  degrees over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1034 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue,
mainly across central Utah, before diminishing after midnight.
These showers were aided by a slight increase in moisture today, 
as PWATs increased to between 1-1.2 inches across much of the 
forecast area. For Tuesday, expect drier air to spread into the 
southwestern quadrant of Utah, while a pool of moisture lingers 
over northern Utah. This will result in scattered convection 
across northern Utah Tuesday afternoon and evening, and very 
isolated convective activity across southern Utah. This idea is 
well supported by various CAMs. 

As high pressure over New Mexico amplifies Tuesday night, a brief
period of southerly flow will spread some moisture back into the
area. This will bring an uptick in convective activity for
Wednesday. However, this should be the last gasp for the monsoonal
pattern for a little while, as the high pressure will then start
to slowly shift westward across Arizona through the weekend. This
will spread a drier westerly flow into the area beginning
Thursday and continuing through the weekend and at least the first
half of next week. 

Temperatures will continue to trend slightly cooler midweek with
the moisture. However, as the airmass dries out and strong high 
pressure shifts over the area late week and over the weekend,
expect a very warm airmass to settle into the area. Global models
show H7 temperatures ranging from 20-22C across the forecast area
with pockets of up to 23C. Most valleys can expect to see high
temperatures of 100 degrees or higher once again (over 110 degrees
in Lower Washington County and the Glen Canyon area). The ECMWF 
Extreme Forecast Index is showing a strong signal for anomalously 
high temperatures during this time. Latest HeatRisk is Major to 
Extreme for most valleys, especially over the weekend. Models 
indicate a bit of a cooling trend early next week as the ridge 
flattens in response to a series of shortwave troughs rippling 
east near the Canadian border. 



&&

.AVIATION...
KSLC...VFR conditions prevail overall at the terminal through the 
TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms developing along the high 
terrain have a 30% chance to impact the terminal between roughly 19-
23z and again 04-09z. The main impact from showers and thunderstorms 
through this period includes gusty and erratic outflow winds, with 
gusts to 30 kts possible at times. Otherwise, southerly winds 
prevail this morning, shifting northwesterly after roughly 19-20z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all 
regional terminals through the period. Isolated to scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are expected across northern and south-central 
Utah as well as southwest Wyoming between 19z-09z, with potential to 
produce gusty and erratic outflow winds with gusts upwards of 30-40 
kts. Otherwise, winds remain generally light, following typical 
diurnal patterns across the airspace.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 459 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026...
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
to continue through Wednesday as monsoonal moisture lingers across
the state. Coverage will be mostly confined to the eastern half of
the state today, then become more widespread on Wednesday. Storms
will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds 
upwards of 40 to 50 mph. Much drier conditions develop areawide on
Thursday as high pressure strengthens across the western US,
limiting chances for convection into the weekend. This pattern
will also bring a warming trend through the latter half of the
week, with temperatures upwards of 10 degrees above average
developing this weekend. Critically dry conditions develop by
Friday across the entirety of Utah as relative humidity values
drop into the single digits to low teens, with poor overnight
humidity recoveries. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam

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