Telluride

000
FXUS65 KGJT 281147
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
547 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More convection today with afternoon and evening showers being
  the rule.

- Main concern will be flash flooding, especially over burn
  scars, as slow moving showers and storms bring heavy rain to
  the area.

- Dry conditions may start moving in towards the end of the week
  as do hotter temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The heat advisory will be allowed to expire. However, high 
temperatures will remain above normal through the mid week 
period, including triple digit highs in some valley locations. 
Continue to use caution during the hottest hours of the day, stay
hydrated, and avoid strenuous activities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1007 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Models previously showed a possible downturn in activity today
but latest HRRR guidance is now showing yet another day of more
widespread convection. The location of the high, available 
moisture (, CAPE values between 800-1200 J/kg (higher in 
spots), and plenty of instability remain across the area and 
with light steering flow, here we go again. Slow moving storms 
will keep the threat of heavy rain in the forecast with flash 
flooding the biggest concern, especially across burn scars. 
Lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds of 40 to 50 mph 
will also be possible. Wednesday, a shortwave still looks to 
move across the area and one would think that with a focus for 
lift, convection would be widespread. Not so as models are 
keeping convection similar to that seen today. Will need to keep
an eye on latest model runs to see how things evolve. Once the 
wave moves through, flow will become north through northwesterly
which will start to bring in drier air. It will take a few days
before this happens as residual moisture will allow some 
convection Thursday and Friday but a downturn is expected. The 
center of high pressure sets up over Utah for the weekend 
bringing mostly dry conditions, maybe a quick shower/storm over 
the San Juans. Of course, now with high pressure almost directly
overhead, here comes the oppressive heat reaching 10 to 15 
degrees above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A line of storms is passing through northwestern Colorado this 
morning. Minimal impacts are expected, though vicinity showers 
and thunderstorms are possible at GJT and HDN. Near 18Z today, 
look for storms to redevelop. Gusty outflow winds will be
generally be around 25 kts, but a few stronger gusts cannot be 
ruled out. Most storms will remain anchored to the high terrain,
so higher elevation terminals are the most likely to exhibit 
any impacts. Localized areas of MVFR vis may be possible under 
stronger rainfall, but areal coverage of storms is too limited 
to speculate if any terminals will experience this or not.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Scattered slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy 
rainfall will develop each afternoon through at least midweek. 
Rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour will be possible, potentially
even greater for brief periods of time with stronger storms. 
These rates could lead to flash flooding and debris flows, 
especially over steep terrain and recent burn scars. Saturated 
soils from consecutive days for rainfall will increase the 
potential for flash flooding as well.

As a reminder: Keep an eye on our forecasts and stay tuned for 
updated hydrology alerts if visiting or if you reside near 
terrain vulnerable to flash flooding and/or debris flows. Dry 
creeks and arroyos can fill quickly and without warning from 
storms miles away.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT