Mt. Baker

000
FXUS66 KSEW 281013
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
313 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system passes across the region today, bringing
some reinforcing cloud cover and some light rain chances across
mostly the western and northern parts of the area. Conditions 
trend drier and warmer Wednesday through Friday, but a return of
cooler and cloudier conditions are expected for much of the area
this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak frontal system will move into the region today, providing
for some breezy southerly winds ahead of the front and some
reinforcing cloud cover across much of the region this morning.
This system will bring some light rain chances across the 
coastal areas and across the northwestern portions of the area, 
but it won't be organized or strong enough to bring much in the 
way of impact to the most of the interior portions of the 
region. The exception could be northern Whatcom County where 
around a 15% chance of a thunderstorm exists (generally north 
and east of Bellingham). 

Behind this system, a bit of a transitional day is expected on 
Wednesday with heights beginning to rise a bit but a typical 
pattern of morning clouds and sun in the afternoon yielding 
temperatures near normal. A bit more of an uptick in 
temperatures Thursday, with Minor HeatRisk across most of the 
area as afternoon high temperatures return to the mid to upper 
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble guidance remains in fairly good agreement for the start
of the long term period with Friday likely to be shaping up as
the warmest day of the week across most of the area with the
ridge amplifying and daytime high temperatures reaching the 
lower to mid 80s across the interior. With this warm up, 
HeatRisk is expected to remain only in the Minor (Yellow) 
category for nearly all of the area given the current overnight 
low temperature forecast. That said, if the pattern shifts 
earlier enough for a longer stretch of warming that allows for 
warmer overnight temperatures, this could end up increasing the
potential for areas of Moderate HeatRisk to emerge. 

Looking ahead, ensembles suggest the most likely scenario to be
a return of a cooler, cloudier and potentially showery pattern
for the weekend. This would bring temperatures near or slightly
below seasonal normals, but again keep the rain chances highest
near the coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Weak front moving inland this afternoon and evening and 
dissipating. Southwesterly flow aloft. MVFR ceilings along the 
coast with VFR ceilings inland. MVFR ceilings developing inland 
13z-16z with ceilings lifting back to VFR after 19z. 

KSEA...VFR ceilings around 4500 feet lowering to 2000 to 3000
feet 13z-15z. Ceilings lifting back up to near 4000 feet around
19z. VFR ceilings continuing through Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds 4 to 8 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots around
18z. Winds easing after 03z. Felton

&&

.MARINE...
Weak cold front moving through the waters today. High
pressure will build in behind the front tonight then remain over 
the waters through Friday. Another weak system will reach the 
waters over the weekend. 

Small craft advisory winds over the inland waters into the early
afternoon hours today. Small craft advisory winds likely Friday
and Saturday evening in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. 

Seas generally in the 4 to 5 foot range into the weekend. Felton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front pushes across the region this morning. While
there's around 40-50% chance of a wetting rain across the
northern coast and in the Olympics, elsewhere showers will
remain rather light. There is still around a 15% chance of a
thunderstorm, but lightning coverage is expected to be rather
limited at best if any does develop. Drier and warmer conditions
then return Wednesday through Friday, with minimum humidity
values reaching the upper 20s and approaching critical
thresholds on Friday. However, low-level flow remains onshore to
provide for good to excellent overnight recoveries, and this 
looks to be a short-lived trend as the pattern shifts back to 
cooler and cloudier conditions for the weekend.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 PM PDT 
     this afternoon for Northern Inland Waters Including The 
     San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

&&

$$