Mt. Baker

000
FXUS66 KSEW 261010
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
310 AM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will move onshore today across northwest Oregon, 
resulting in lingering showers for Western Washington. Unsettled 
conditions will continue on Tuesday for light precipitation. A 
frontal system will move into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, 
bringing lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy conditions. 
Cooler conditions favored midweek into the weekend. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper-level low pressure system continues to spin offshore 
towards northwest Oregon early this morning. As the system pushes 
east today, expect lingering shower activity. A weak shortwave will 
drop down early Tuesday keeping conditions unsettled. A frontal 
system associated with a colder air mass will will move south from 
British Columbia into Washington late Tuesday into Wednesday. This 
system will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, cooler temperatures, 
and breezy winds. Snow levels are expected to drop Tuesday evening 
into Wednesday morning to 2500-3500 ft. These lower snow levels will 
introduce snow to the passes. Latest NBM guidance has trended 
slightly higher for snowfall amounts. At the moment, guidance 
suggests the passes may see between 4-6 inches and higher mountain 
peaks may receive 8-13 inches by Wednesday evening. Additionally, 
there is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday for the 
lowlands, with probabilities currently between 10-15%. As for
winds, latest guidance has wind gusts peaking between 20-25 mph. 
In the wake of the cold front passing on Wednesday, high 
temperatures are expected to only peak into the upper 40s to low
50s. 

29

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is generally good agreement between ensembles that the upper 
level low will deepen offshore Thursday through late in the week, 
lowering the chances for precipitation over Western Washington.
Cooler temperatures are favored to continue into the weekend.
High temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Low temperatures
will be in the 30s, with upper 20s possible in the usual colder
spots. Ensemble members are evenly split on the upper-level 
pattern on Sunday. Some members favor a trough over the Pacific 
Northwest, while others favor a transient upper level ridge.

29

&&

.AVIATION...
South to southeasterly flow aloft as an upper level low sinks 
southward along the coast before starting to push inland over 
northern OR today, before shifting northwesterly as the system moves 
further east. SUrface winds this morning largely light and variable 
with speeds less than 5 kts. Those showing slightly faster speeds 
ranging 4-8 kts have a more east to northeasterly direction, such as 
HQM, OLM and BLI. Most terminals expected to shift southerly by 
early afternoon although speeds largely remaining around 5 kts or 
slightly less.

Lower cigs mainly tied to where precip persists this early morning. 
VFR conditions being reported by the East Sound Terminals while much 
of the Olympic Peninsula has MVFR to IFR conditions. With the coast 
being close to the center of the upper low, a mix of VFR to MVFR 
conditions are present there but as latest radar shows another band 
of precip reaching the coast by mid-morning, a shift to more MVFR 
cigs there is likely. Short-lived widespread low-end VFR conditions 
expected in the early afternoon, but with plenty of low level 
moisture and a shift to onshore flow, MVFR conditions throughout W 
WA expected to develop this evening with MVFR/IFR conditions tonight 
into Tuesday.

KSEA...VFR conditions in place, although with the upper low shifting 
eastward today, cigs expected to dip into high-end MVFR later in the 
morning. Low-end VFR returns this afternoon and evening, but as 
stated above, onshore flow and abundant low level moisture will 
bring a return to at least MVFR conditions tonight and into Tuesday. 
Some models are hinting at IFR conditions emerging in the overnight 
hours, however confidence is low at this time.

18

&&

.MARINE...
A weakening surface low will move onshore over the northern Oregon 
coast today, flipping winds back to onshore. Another frontal system 
will reach the waters on Wednesday as its associated low moves into 
the region and southward along the coastal waters. This will likely 
bring the next round of headlines to portions of the area waters as 
well as the return of offshore flow to the waters through the second 
half of the week. 

Seas generally 3-6 ft today before briefly building back up to 7-9 
ft near midweek. They will then subside once more to 4-6 ft Thursday 
and remain there through the weekend. 

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$